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Biden administration overstated second-quarter job growth by 1m: Philadelphia Fed

Biden administration overstated second-quarter job growth by 1m: Philadelphia Fed
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The Biden administration the number of jobs created is overestimated according to a report in the US in the second quarter by more than 1 million published by the Philadelphia Fed.

The Philadelphia Fed report found that just 10,500 new jobs were added between March and June.

This result is in stark contrast to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which estimates that 1.12 million new jobs were added between March and June 2022.

Economists at the regional central bank in Philadelphia released their own report last week that compiles data from unemployment insurance payments.

The Philadelphia Fed said its estimates include “more comprehensive, more accurate jobs estimates released by the BLS as part of its Quarterly Employment and Wage Census (QCEW) program to supplement sample data from the “BLS reports,” which ” monthly on a promptly.”

The number of jobs created in the second quarter may have been overstated by the Biden administration, according to the Philadelphia Fed.
The number of jobs created in the second quarter of 2022 may have been overstated by the Biden administration, according to the Philadelphia Fed.
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The regional central bank said its “revised estimates” are released “five months later with a more complete picture” than the BLS’s “Recent Employment Survey” (CES).

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said more than 1 million jobs were added in the second quarter of this year, but the Philadelphia Fed said the number is actually 10,500.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said more than 1 million jobs were added in the second quarter of this year, but the Philadelphia Fed said the number is actually 10,500.
Getty Images

One expert told the Post that the stark contrast in the numbers could be explained by “using different methods to collect and analyze the data.”

“The Bureau of Labor Statistics collects its data through surveys of employers and households, while the Philadelphia Fed relies on data from unemployment insurance payments,” Mina Tadrus, CEO of Tadrus Capital, told The Post.

“It’s also possible that there are differences in the definitions and categories used by the two organizations when determining what counts as a new job.”

Tadrus told the Post that “the significant difference in their results underscores the need for caution in interpreting and using economic data for decision-making.”

Economists said so the series of sharp interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve was based primarily on BLS job growth figures, which have hampered the central bank’s efforts to contain scorching hot inflation.

Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) said the Biden administration “lied to the American people about our economy to prop up their failed agenda.”

“Wrong by a million jobs,” Scott tweeted last Friday.

The senator demands a meeting with the head of the BLS.

The Philadelphia Fed said it pulled data from unemployment insurance payments statistics.
The Philadelphia Fed said it pulled data from unemployment insurance payments statistics.
AP

According to the BLS website, CES surveys approximately 131,000 businesses and government agencies representing approximately 670,000 construction sites across the United States.

However, the QCEW is considered “more comprehensive” because, according to the Philadelphia Fed, it bases its findings on surveys of “more than 95% of all employers” conducted five months after the relevant quarter.

“Our early benchmark process doesn’t attempt to be as comprehensive as the BLS process because we don’t have access to all of the data that the BLS uses,” the Philadelphia Fed said in describing its methodology.

“Therefore, we accept the BLS’s CES benchmark estimates as the baseline employment level for each state.”

“Once QCEW data is released for periods beyond the latest CES benchmark estimates, we will produce our early benchmark estimates,” the Philadelphia Fed added.

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